Pathways to Net Zero Carbon by 2030
The science is clear that without urgent action, the world is on track for catastrophic temperature increases. We must rapidly reduce emissions to limit the worst effects of the climate emergency.
Net zero carbon by 2030
The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has set a target for London to be net zero carbon by 2030. To support this ambition, he has commissioned experts Element Energy to analyse the possible pathways to achieving net zero.
Fairness must be at the heart of the net zero pathway. The cost of no action will impact lower income Londoners the most, with overheating, toxic air and flooding all posing a risk. We must ensure we are supporting those on low incomes from the costs and ensure they benefit from warm, energy efficient homes, cleaner air and the new green jobs that will come from taking faster action.
Element Energy analysed four possible pathways to net zero, looking at the different ways London can reduce emissions. The report shows that under all pathways it is possible to accelerate action and radically reduce carbon emissions with the right ambition, leadership, powers and funding. As well as helping avoid catastrophic climate change, there are many other benefits in achieving net zero, including supporting tens of thousands of jobs; improving health through better air quality and more active lifestyles; reducing inequalities and improving quality of life for all.
The Accelerated Green pathway
The Mayor has selected a preferred pathway to net zero - the Accelerated Green pathway. Amongst other things, achieving this will require:
- Nearly 40 per cent reduction in the total heat demand of our buildings, requiring over 2 million homes and a quarter of a million non-domestic buildings to become properly insulated
- 2.2 million heat pumps in operation in London by 2030
- 460,000 buildings connected to district heating networks by 2030
- A 27 per cent reduction in car vehicle km travelled by 2030
- Fossil fuel car and van sales ended by 2030 and enforced in line with Government’s existing commitments.
The Mayor’s response to the Element Report explains the key issues, benefits and challenges of the four possible pathways and why the Accelerated Green pathway is the preferred option for London. This pathway balances ambition with deliverability and replaces the previous trajectory in the 1.5°C Plan.
Monitoring greenhouse gas emissions
The Greater London Authority monitors London’s greenhouse gas emissions and publishes its results in the London energy and greenhouse gas emissions inventory (LEGGI) annually. The latest data, for 2021, was published in December 2023.
The data shows that in 2021, London’s CO2e emissions were 28.7 million tonnes, down from 31.5 million tonnes in 2019. This include a small ‘rebound effect’, where emissions rose 1.7 per cent, or 0.48 MtCO2e, compared to 2020 (nationally there was a 5.0 per cent rebound). This is largely due to ongoing impacts of COVID-19 on London’s economy, though other long term trends, like increasing numbers of electric vehicles, warmer weather conditions and a shift away from heavy industry, are ongoing.
2021 emissions represent a 37 per cent reduction on 1990 levels and a 44 per cent reduction since the peak of emissions in 2000. This is despite an increase in population of 29 per cent since 1990 and significant economic growth over that period. London’s per capita emissions have reduced by 51 per cent, from 6.7 tonnes CO2e per person in 1990 to 3.3 tonnes CO2e per person in 2021. Compared to the rest of the UK, London has the lowest per capita emissions of any region.
LEGGI reports on five sectors: emissions from buildings, transport, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), waste and agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU); with around 90% of emissions coming from buildings and transport. Most sectors have seen a significant reduction in emissions over the last few decades. This is largely due to the nation-wide decarbonisation of electricity but emissions but interventions such as London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone and the Mayor’s Energy Efficiency Fund have helped to further reduce emissions in London. 2021 emissions are compared with 1990, 2000, 2016 and 2020 in Table 1.
Table 1. London’s emissions by sector in 2021, compared to 1990 and 2020
*Data availability allowed emission estimates for the Waste sector with back-calculations for solid waste disposal to 2008, for biological treatment to 2016 and for wastewater to 2013.
The latest data for 2021, and previous years, can be found on the London DataStore.
To compare London’s progress with other C40 Cities, the C40 Knowledge Hub provides data via an interactive dashboard.
Net Zero Carbon Pathways
The scenarios to reach net zero carbon have been modelled at the Greater London and London borough level. The Zero Carbon Pathways Tool shows the energy, transport and other emissions under each scenario.
We have also commissioned a study on London’s wider greenhouse gas impacts – read the report about London’s consumption based emissions. Whilst outside of the scope of the Mayor’s net zero target, he is doing everything within his power to influence a reduction in consumption based emissions. For example, the London Plan includes a pioneering policy that targets the whole life-cycle emissions of new development and the Mayor has committed to working with the food sector to reduce consumption-based emissions and food loss and waste from the supply chain.
Previous 2050 pathway
The previous net zero pathway is outlined in the 2018 1.5C Compatible Plan:
Previous supporting publications
The 2018 1.5C Compatible Plan was informed by the following reports:
- Building Energy Efficiency - Arup built a model to help us understand how energy efficiency can be achieved.
- Zero Carbon Energy Systems - Element Energy modelled four scenarios to zero carbon energy by 2050, based on electrification, decarbonisation of gas, decentralisation of energy or a patchwork solution.
- Adaptation - Mott McDonald have reviewed London’s existing activity on climate adaptation and identified where there is need for more to avoid the impacts of increasingly hot, dry summers and unpredictable weather
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