The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL

GLA Economics and Transport for London (TfL) have analysed the implications of a forced to move to a ‘managed decline’ scenario if the Government does not provide the emergency and long-term funding required to maintain the capital’s transport services.

Public transport users would experience an immediate loss of benefits if TfL were forced to pursue severe service level reductions beyond current plans. Furthermore, by severely constraining future capital investment, there would be a gradual but significant accumulation of additional negative impacts.

Over a ten-year appraisal period, the lost transport and highway user benefits associated with severe service level reductions and a shift from the Financially Constrained to the Managed Decline capital scenario could be worth £7.3bn in present value terms (2019 prices). There will also be wider economic impacts of the cuts in addition to the transport user impacts; we estimate these could be worth a further £4.5bn over ten years in present value terms. Adding together and including the cost of increased carbon emissions, the total economic impacts could be over £12bn. Unless funding is restored, disbenefits would increase rapidly over a longer time-horizon.

Download Economic impact of the TfL funding cuts